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Sales Forecast of Dual-Channel Supply Chain based on Improved Bass and SVM Model |
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PP: 891-900 |
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Author(s) |
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Qi Xu,
Zheng Liu,
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Abstract |
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| As the increasingly fierce competition, more and more manufacturers have started to sell products through online channels
apart from traditional retail channel. Meanwhile, increased competition has significantly shortened the product life cycle, which makes
sales forecast meaningful. Taking lack of historical record into account, the sales forecast model based on historical sales data based on
Bass model as well as the improved Bass model by consideration of service and purchase factors are firstly discussed. And then, based
on analysis of above model, a multi-factors sales forecast model based on SVM(Support VectorMachine) for short-life cycle product in
dual-channel is creatively proposed, which integrates multi-factors, such as the improved Bass model predictive value, seasonal index,
number of customers, credit value in practice. Finally, through simulation analysis, it is found that SVM-based multi-factor model is
able to improve sales forecast of short life-cycle products in dual-channel supply chain system. |
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