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A Reliability-Based Risk Analysis of a Hollow Buttress Gravity Concrete Dam |
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PP: 1161-1178 |
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doi:10.18576/amis/180520
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Author(s) |
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Zakaria Che Muda,
Mohamed Hafez,
Lariyah Mohd Sidek,
Hidayah Basri,
Salmia Beddu,
Siti Mariam Alias Omar,
Zaher Almkahar,
As’ad Zakaria,
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Abstract |
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| In this paper we investigate the suitability of using first-order reliability method (FORM) analysis against a more vigorous Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for reliability-based analysis of the existing buttress dam in compliance with ICOLD (2005) requirements. Extreme rainfall events due to climate change critically impact the reliability and safety of the existing dams, making it an important consideration in dam risk analysis to prevent dam failure. The sliding mode is the most dominant mode of failure, and the overturning failure mode has the least significant effect. A strong linear correlation between the probability of failure and the safety factor for sliding has been established. An excellent linear correlation between the FORM-Taylor Series and Monte Carlo analysis for sliding has been obtained. The Taylor Series method is based on a simplified first-order probabilistic analysis, although somewhat conservative but adequate to be used at the preliminary design stage. The friction angle for sliding has the highest sensitivity of 94.8%, followed by the density of concrete of 4.0% and the least is the cohesion of 1.2%. The unconditional and conditional probability of failure were then evaluated against the ICOLD (2005) requirements. This studys significance indicates the FORM is too conservative to be used for the risk- based safety evaluation of the old existing hollow buttress dam at the operation stage. The Monte Carlo analysis provides a more precise form of risk analysis suitable for both the existing old dam and the new dam at the design, construction and operation stages.
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