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Using Fuzzy Logic to Obtain PERT Three-Time Estimates in Oil and Gas Projects |
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PP: 29-34 |
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Author(s) |
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Yerkezhan Shakenova,
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Abstract |
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| A lot of projects especially in Oil and Gas sector are out of schedule. Main problem is wrongly calculated activity durations,
because Oil and Gas projects are very large and have many activities. In most cases experienced person, who may not be expert in
statistics or in its area at all, chooses durations of project activities. Moreover experience and knowledge of person is always limited
and his/her opinion is subjective. We propose method of survey for experts in a field of project’s area, especially Oil and Gas sector.
During the survey experts will be asked to answer questions about activity durations in intervals, not in exact numbers. Survey uses
linguistic variables as answers and calculates fuzzy numbers from them. Further defuzzified activity durations will serve as input for
simulation.
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