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The Regional Financial Risk Early-Warning Model Integrating the Regression of Lagging Factors |
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PP: 1035-1041 |
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Author(s) |
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DongSheng Liu,
GuangLan Zhou,
KeNa Zhu,
Chonghuan Xu,
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Abstract |
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| It is an essential demand to establish an effective financial risk early-warning system for financial security. But some factors
have a lagging effect on financial risk. So this paper aims to construct a reasonable and practical indicator system for financial
risk early-warning. First, determine the explained variables of the indicator made up by Chinese financial stress index. Second,
confirm the explanatory variables consisting of the macroeconomic variable, the currency credit variable, asset price variable and the
macroeconomic variable of correlative economic powers. Finally, propose an optimum forecast equation to predict financial systemic
risk status. In conclusion, the forecast outcomes indicate that Chinese financial systemic risk is on rising trend in the past three quarters
in 2011 and higher than the peak of 2008, whereas financial systemic risk declines at the fourth quarter |
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