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Numerical Simulation of an Influenza Epidemic: Prediction with Fractional SEIR and the ARIMA Model |
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PP: 1-12 |
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doi:10.18576/amis/180101
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Author(s) |
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Salem Mubarak Alzahrani,
Rania Saadeh,
Mohamed A.Abdoon,
Ahmad Qazza,
Fathelrhman EL Guma,
Mohammed Berir,
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Abstract |
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| This article offers a condensed analysis of a fractional SEIR model used to track and forecast influenza spread. In addition, the seasonal evolution of influenza epidemics is predicted using the ARIMA model. The Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivative operator, which offers a more precise explanation of influenza dynamics than conventional integer operators, is the subject of the study. The study shows that the fractional order model outperforms the ARIMA model and agrees with actual data. The results emphasize the significance of using fractional models to health risk management and creating numerical methods with accurate parameter values. Graphical illustrations of several fractional orders are included in the article. Graphical illustrations of various fractional order and fractal dimension levels are included in the article. These findings have significance for creating pandemic mathematical models that are more accurate and devising realistic influenza control methods.
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