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Risk analysis and aversion of renewable energy supplies in China based on the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method |
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PP: 975-981 |
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Author(s) |
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Yong-xiu He,
Ying Zhou,
Bing Wang,
Ting Zhang,
Wei Xiong,
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Abstract |
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| In China, the power industry is thermal power dominated and it is facing the risk of insufficient supply of coal and other non-renewable fossil fuels. In addition, in the power generation process, the thermal power units using fossil fuels will generate a large number of emissions of pollutants, and directly harm the ecological environment. Therefore, China urgently needs to add renewable energy sources. This paper makes risk recognition and analyzes the planning process of renewable energy generation. The probability distribution and Monte Carlo simulation method are applied to analyze risks quantitatively, and then a risk evaluation model of renewable energy supplies is established. Meanwhile, taking wind power as an example, a sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the various risks. Finally, risk aversion of renewable energy supplies is studied and the measures of risk aversion are raised in order to propose reasonable suggestions with regards the development of renewable energy generation in China. |
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