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A Stochastic Model of Some Endemic Infections: Case Study Based on the Medical Records of Gbagada General Hospital, Lagos State, Nigeria. |
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PP: 265-272 |
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doi:10.18576/jsap/050207
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Author(s) |
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E. B. Nkemnole,
R. O. Osunkeye,
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Abstract |
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| This research investigates the endemic level and (knowledge of) persistence time of endemic diseases in a population using a
Stochastic Model such as Markov process which is a continuous time and discrete state space that requires the Monte Carlo Simulation
for the desired results to be gotten. It assesses some areas of active research in efficient procedures for simulation in health sector and
addresses the influence of gender as regards to the average days a particular disease dies out. There is also an emphasis on the average
population to be infected on a monthly basis. The data used for this study is obtained from the medical records that runs from January
2012 through December 2012 of General Hospital Gbagada, Lagos State which comprises of children from ages 0 to 12years and adults
from ages 13years and above. TheMonte Carlo simulation carried out shows the trend line and equations of the data. Empirical analysis
showed a significant relationship between gender and persistence time of endemic diseases in a population. |
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